British systems theorist Nafeez Ahmed, known for accurately predicting major events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the rise of clean energy, has published a new study suggesting that human civilisation is approaching a critical evolutionary leap. In his article in the scientific journal Foresight, Ahmed argues that we are nearing the end of the industrial civilisation era, poised for a transition to a more advanced “post-materialist” society.
This new civilisation, driven by distributed clean energy and technological abundance, could lead to what he terms a “networked superabundance”. However, he warns that this transformation is not guaranteed and could be obstructed by authoritarian political forces, citing the Trump administration as an example.
According to Ahmed, civilisations evolve through a four-stage cycle: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. He believes we are now in the final phase of this cycle, supported by empirical data from key sectors such as energy, transport, food, and information. One key indicator is the declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from fossil fuels, meaning that increasingly more energy is required to extract diminishing returns. Despite this, many governments continue to subsidise fossil fuels, delaying the necessary transition.
On a more optimistic note, Ahmed highlights that renewable energy sources are experiencing exponential improvements in EROI. Similar transformative advances are being observed across other sectors, including food production, transportation, and artificial intelligence. These innovations, he suggests, could converge between 2030 and 2060 to radically reshape how we produce and consume resources, while also preserving Earth’s natural systems.
Nevertheless, Ahmed cautions that the global rise of authoritarianism remains a significant threat to this potential civilisational shift. If political systems continue to support outdated industrial models, the opportunity for a sustainable and equitable future may be lost.
